Where’s the best place to live in light of collapse?
Ok we are 323 comments in on the collapse post and 98% didn’t bother to make even a slightly thoughtful answer. So... i guess i will be the change i want to see in the world First off, If you are the fatalistic nihlistic type you can just go where you think it will be nice to die, maybe that is with friends and family, maybe it is on a beach in mexico, or feeding your body to the last polar bear. For everyone else that still has the instinct and drive for self-preservation….
What are the best places to be leading up to or during collapse?
First let's question the question.
What difference does it make to know "What are the best places to be leading up to or during collapse"? The answer is dependent upon your own personal situation. Your personal situation has limiting factors.
Imagine you are a goat herder in Somalia during a multi year drought and there is no grass for feeding your animals. You have to sell them for dirt cheap because everyone else is also trying to sell off everything they can to get money thus depressing the goat prices further. Now the price of food is skyrocketing because there is no grass and the farmers crops failed, everyone is trying to buy up a hoard of food because everyone knows it is going to be a hard year. You manage to get the equivalent of $120USD in cash after selling practically everything you own but held onto one breeding pair of your healthiest goats you plan to use to regain a livelihood after the drought is over.
Imagine you are a billionaire with a fueled up superyacht, a helicopter, and a private plane. You have practically unlimited money, friends who are rich and connected in other countries, and a whole slew of passports, visas, and secondary citizenships, all else failing you can buy citizenships in most countries for less than $2million investment and pay a teams of specialists to expedite the process.
Your personal Limiting Factors constrain you usually somewhere between those extremes, everyone has different options. If we assume you are asking the question "What are the best places to be leading up to or during collapse" because you want to have the best standard of living available for as long as possible or simply survive the incoming population bottleneck, then the practical question becomes ...
"What are the best places to be, leading up to or during collapse, that i can get to, and establish myself in such a way that I can maintain the best standard of living possible for as long as I can or simply increase my probability of surviving the incoming population bottleneck."
It is important to ask this question to constrain the search space to the possible. It makes fuck-all difference if a somali goat herder knows about the ToP SeCret ElitE mULtibiLLioNaIre New ZEaLand sOUth IsLaNd ReDoUbt BuNkeR CoMmUnITy It is not going to help him and should not be in the search space as a survival strategy. TL:DR Constrain your search space to what is realistically achievable for you.
Start with your baseline probability of survival and increase it.
Don't let a search for "best place" stop you from achieving "good enough place" or "better than where i was previously place".
You are just trying to be an early adopter of increasing your survival probability stats before the non collapse-pilled masses.
Think of surviving bottlenecks like surviving a charging bear attack, you don't need to be able to outrun the bear, you only need to be able to outrun the slowest people in the group up to the point the bear's appetite is satiated.
What are the best places to be, leading up to or during collapse, that i can get to, and establish myself in such a way that I can maintain the best standard of living possible for as long as I can or simply increase my probability of surviving the incoming population bottleneck."
Ok now lets question the new question some more...
In order to answer this we need to untangle some of the subjective and objective elements. The objective elements of human survival are well known.
Optimizing location is a series of subjective trade-offs. There is no perfect place, they all have advantages and disadvantages. So you must decide your personal preference of which goods and bads you most desire and what your scenario expectations are of the future. Your personal preferences and collapse expectations mean the “best area” is specific to you. What you can achieve and what do you desire, find the overlap between the two, then do research to find the place that gives you the most goods with the least bads and increases your probability of survival and standard of living. One of the best strategies is to adapt yourself to your local circumstances to take advantage of the advantages, and plan ahead to mitigate the disadvantages, it is really all most people can do for themselves. Do you like not living in unbearable heat, maybe moving to greenland is NOT a better option than just buying 400watts of solar panels and attaching it to a small efficient AC that keeps one room of your house cool even during summer electricity blackouts. Most problems have multiple solutions, it is worth it to take time and think about things from an economic perspective and different time horizon perspectives. Increasing your optionality is better than narrowing it when it comes to survival, rather than the binary thinking, of “go way out into the northern mountains, farm and live in a bunker” versus “be a full time yuppie and ignore collapse issues”. Getting 2 acres you can put a cheap used rv camper on and go do permaculture on during weekends, near enough your place of employment/where you live, is probably a better plan. Indeed the small dacha’s and country gardens helped many people survive the collapse of the USSR. They would spend weekends and haul potatoes/veggies back to the city with them on the bus. Hedge your bets to cover the most scenarios including the most likely scenarios like losing your job or getting in a car accident. Survival and thriving always has and always will involve dynamic adaptation. Here is a very short list of some of potential trade-offs that you may need to think about and some brief descriptions of how they can affect things. This is NOT meant to be a systematic or exhaustive analysis, this is just me stream-of-conscious flowing on strong coffee to help others start thinking about it for themselves. There are unlimited variables
Hot versus cold
A lot of people in the forum think they it is somehow optimal for them to move to canada or greenland. Someone in eastern kansas moving to canada is not necessary, remember even in RCP8.5 business as usual scenario kansas by the end of the century still won’t be as hot as texas is currently. If there are already people living in hotter dryer areas now, then it doesn’t make a lot of sense to pack up your shit and move to the arctic, just enjoy the longer summers. At least base it on something scientific like the expectation of when that area will cross the 35C wetbulb survivability threshold, so if you live in Bandar Mahshahr then yes move somewhere else now is time.
Do you have children?
Moving somewhere may not be needed if you can live out your expected natural lifespan before things get too bad, especially with the climate. If you have children you may want to move to account for the expectations during their future lifetimes.
Wet versus dry
Wet places usually have more disease and insect loads for people and crops. In dry places it is harder to raise food, net primary productivity is usually lower, except where irrigation is available but there are usually less pests including plant fungal diseases like powdery mildew. There are Europeans living in certain parts of africa whom can only inhabit those areas currently because of antimalarial drugs, pesticides and mosquito nets. The native populations are full of people heterozygous for sickle cell which gives them resistance/immunity to the malaria, just a long view consideration.
Seasonality of rainfall
if you get all your rainfall in the summer you usually live in a region where the muggy wetbulb temps are higher and will be getting higher. You are more likely to get floods during the growing season. If you get rainfall mainly in the winter like mediteranean climates you will usually have dry summers with low humidity so deadly wetbulb temps should not be a problem but maintaining summer vegetables requires irrigation. If using rainfed agriculture you will have different crop choices, which areas grow the types of food you like?
Sunny versus overcast
Sunny areas are great for some dark skinned people and needed for vitamin D production in post collapse scenarios unless you have a good dietary source, black people in dim areas get Vitamin D deficiency diseases like rickets and have higher mortality in a hard enough crash. Gecko skinned gingers thrive better in overcast areas. Lots of people currently exist in environments they are biologically maladapted to, they are only able to live there because of modern fortified foods/supplements and medical care. Bright sunlight destroys folate (needed for reproduction) in pale people and causes skin cancer. Some people get S.A.D. and commit suicide in the gloomy winters of the pacific northwest USA. Just because a place is good in lots of other ways, you should not consider it if it will leave suicidal.
Growing season, long versus short
Long growing season usually means more heat for longer, more times to grow crops but usually less optimal conditions. Short seasons means you have to compress a lot more work in a shorter amount of time. It also means trees grow slower and growing your own fuel supply takes more land footprint while you simultaneously need more heating fuel. Places like iowa have moderate/short growing season but the high lattitude makes for long daylength which increases productivity during the moderate/short growing season. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer and soils highly fertile but it is practically one giant biocide saturated monoculture of death. It doesn’t matter if the you live in a fecund area if your future children die of bluebaby syndrome from the nitrate pollution in the well-water or end up mentally retarded from the chlorpyrifos spray drift bioaccumulating and destroying neural development in utero.
Let's be real here, most of you need to have employment to live, even as things crumble in a slow crash the vast majority will be dependent on employment and purchasing in the marketplace that which they need for subsistence. Cities are almost always better for employment. Keep in mind recently and historically, even prior to the industrial revolution, people were more often moving to cities to escape collapse scenarios in real life. You can look at africa and the middle east today. The reason is the city with its dense network effects can command food from a diversity of sources and the economics incentivize shipping surplus to cities. In times where the economics don't incentivize it governments usually seize it and send it to the cities. There is lots of historical precedent showing this, despite the general ruralist zeitgiest among collapsniks thinking that they need a homestead in the country. Employment or entitlements has been and will be the primary way people meet subsistence needs even in most collapse scenarios. Even in 3rd world areas that are experiencing famines, war, full infrastructure breakdown and conditions that are equivalent to 1st worlder visions of total collapse, people still wake up, go to work pulling weeds for the local land baron, get paid and then go buy a bowl of millet from the store.
High versus low wages.
some areas have low wages but this can come with benefits like low cost of living and people being pre-adapted to living through cooperative social behaviors and "ghetto rigging" improvisation. Last time i was in some shithole parts of arkansas i noticed just about every rural person had a decent sized garden, more than any other state i've been to. They feel compelled to share unlike some high-income places where people are clawing for money to pay rents or status seeking in a dog eat dog competitive environment. I have lived in quite a few homeless encampments and one thing that surprises people is how everyone gives away all surplus among each other, this is a paleolithic variance smoothing strategy, it is supernaturally effective and feels natural once you do it. I see it re-evolve over and over in poor people.
Education levels and sociability of the population
Is the area culturally acceptable to you? Are you acceptable to the people of the area?
There are places that may have all sorts of good qualities but they are filled with ignorant racist meth head bible belt sociopaths who will torment you out of sheer boredom. Some places get full of these people and they reinforce the ignorance and shittiness into a dominant culture that you will be fighting against if you move there. When moving to a place where you are an outsider and the community is hostile to allowing assimilation that can reduce your survival odds. See various historical genocides.
Distance from food sources
Being close to a food source like right on a farm you grow on is great but if you have crop failure you may have no draw to bring in the food. Distance should be measured multiple ways including the strength and reliability of the transportation networks and the energetic distance for transport in energy descent scenarios. Think of the number of connections in the network you can draw from. In a city there are many stores each store sourcing from thousands of farmers, if a few farmers or stores fail there are still plenty of options. Some small rural towns depopulate once the single local walmart closes. Do you trust the local weather and your own potential self sufficiency more than markets/entitlements and transport resilience? Across what scenarios and time spans?
Legal rights and entitlements availability
Solid legal rights and strong property law is great if you are part of the ownership class but when you are dispossessed, lack of legal enforcement can give you a higher standard of living because you can build shelter and do side hustles things without having "the man" come slap you down. In a place like western Europe you may have recourse to welfare entitlements and unemployment insurance payments to buy food in financial crashes and slow crash scenarios, in some countries things like this are not available, this is more important than most people think. Indeed most recent famines occur where food is present but people just have no way to buy it because they are brokeAF, you don't see rich people in those areas starving.
Water flows towards money. Just because there is a stream nearby doesn't mean you will be able to take water from it, you may need water rights while government is still able to enforce such edicts. Alternatively you may have impeccable senior water rights but the government enforcement is defunded and someone with zero water rights is upstream from you sucking the entire creek dry during a crash. Rainfall vs irrigation. rainfall allows a form of independence but having reliable irrigation can smooth out catastrophic variance in rain shortfalls. Don’t forget irrigation management was a major factor in the formation of early oppressive states.
Even prior to the industrial revolution, in cities that had Sea Ports, the population in those cities had higher survival rates than those living in the countryside during famines. Transportation is critical. More transportation modes plane, train, automobile, bikepaths, all different roads, rails, canals, rivers etc. These transports allow goods to flow, which generally helps satisfy regional shortages. Some people judge the main threat to be people taking what they have, usually it is governments doing the taking in the historical record but many are concerned with mythical hordes. If you subscribe to this paranoia about people robbing your homestead you may enjoy being as minimally connected as possible to the transport system. You must determine based on your own preferences and expectations. Good transport is a double edged sword, it means food/resources can also be shipped out of your area towards money/powerful people, remember ownership norms and enforcement rarely disappear during collapse-like periods, indeed the ownership class still sends supplies to the highest bidder which may not be you, see Irish Gorta Mor for example.
In places like london way back when they still burned wood as cooking and heating fuel there were estates just outside the city that were highly organized coppice producers that fueled the city. Wood is heavy and only so much could be carried in a cartload considering they relied on animal traction. There was a distance where bringing the wood to london to sell would not make you any money even despite you getting wood for free because the cost of the journey feeding yourself and animal took the entire value of the wood. These effects are worth thinking about across different transport scenarios. Assets become stranded and likewise things can become uneconomical to ship to you when you need things produced in the city. The wood producing estates outside london were well off financially and smaller estate size could provide higher income than the much more distant estates that were an order of magnitude larger. Transport matters, markets and trade continue to exist in practically every collapse and even in supermax prisons, expect to use markets as a survival strategy, it is more likely than you living some isolated mountain man scenario.
(the older a soil is geologically X how much rainfall it gets) is what generally determines how fertile it is. The best soils are those that are relatively new and have been subjected to just enough rainfall to match the evapotranspiration rate, this minimizes nutrients leaching out, these are the mollisols/chernozems of the prairies. Because the water is just-enough in those zones they are also right at the edge where they can have major droughts with even slightly less rainfall. Wetter areas generally have less inherent soil fertility because of more leaching of nutrients but have more room for rainfall variability without plants meeting water deficiency.
your social ties family friends locations
Having a positive social environment with people you love while just getting by, is better than doing well financially and being socially isolated, for most people. Don’t abandon good family and friends if you can avoid it, it is usually not worth it. “Social capital” has always been a key to human flourishing. Many people in the collapse of the USSR survived on “blat”, not by relocating. A real world social network for altruistic reciprocity is a survival tool.
Proximity to imperialist countries with militaries that may want/need your resources for themselves or their people
Places like ukraine, some of the best farmland in the world, a country may seem optimal in many ways but historically this advantage was noted by outsiders and it has been at the crossroads of empires which means they suffered tremendously in war. The devastation of war and imperialism negated much of the natural benefits of the area when it comes to survival rates. This is something to consider. In parts of africa there is more conflict in abundant zones with more food, outside of famine zones because paramilitaries are supported from the land there and controlling the food supply is used as weapon of political power. Concentration of resources can make areas more dangerous, it makes attacking them economical.
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Dear Reader (including the poor Biden staffers who have to white-knuckle their armrests when not sucking down unfiltered Marlboros every time Joe Biden gives an interview), If you’ve never heard the Milton Friedman shovels and spoons story, you will (and I don’t just mean here). Because everyone on the right tells some version of it at some point. The other Uncle Miltie (i.e., not the epically endowed comedic genius) goes to Asia or Africa or South America and is taken on a tour of some public works project in a developing country. Hundreds of laborers are digging with shovels. Milton asks the official in charge something like, “Why use shovels when earth moving equipment would be so much more efficient?” The official replies that this is a jobs program and using shovels creates more jobs. Friedman guffaws and asks, “In that case: Why not use spoons?” The story might not be true, but the insight is timeless. Here’s another story: When I was in college, we were debating in intro to philosophy the differences between treating men and women “equally” versus treating them the “same.” At first blush, the two things sound synonymous, but they’re not (indeed the difference illuminates the chasm of difference between classical liberalism and socialism, but that’s a topic for another day). I pointed out that there were some firefighter programs that had different physical requirements for male applicants and female ones (this was before it was particularly controversial—outside discussions of Foucault—to assume there were clear differences between sexes). Female applicants had to complete an obstacle course carrying a 100-pound dummy, but men had to carry a 200-pound dummy, or something like that. A puckish freshperson named Jonah Goldberg said: “I don’t really care if a firefighter is a man, a woman, or a gorilla, I’d just like them to be able to rescue me from a fire.” A woman sitting in front of me wheeled around and womansplained to me that “you can always just hire two women.” I shot back something like, “You could also hire 17 midgets, that’s not the point.” (I apologize for using the word midget, which wasn’t on the proscribed terms list at the time.) But here’s the thing: Sometimes it is the point. Whether you’re talking about spoons or little people, the case for efficiency is just one case among many. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s an important one, but it’s not the only one. Sometimes older children are told to bring their little brothers or sisters along on some trip. They’ll complain, “But they’ll just slow us down!” or, “But they aren’t allowed on the big kid rides.” Parents understand the point, but they are not prioritizing efficiency over love. Or, they’re prioritizing a different efficiency: Not being stuck with a little kid who’s crying all day because he or she was left behind. One of my favorite scenes in the movie Searching for Bobby Fischer is when the chess tutor Bruce Pandolfini, played by Ben Kingsley, tells the chess prodigy’s parents that they have to forbid their son from playing pickup chess in the park because he learns bad chess habits there. The mom says “Not playing in the park would kill him. He loves it.” Kingsley replies, accurately, that it “just makes my job harder.” And the mom says, “Then your job is harder.” I love that. I love it precisely because it recognizes that good parents recognize that there are trade-offs in life and that the best option isn’t always the most efficient one. This is one of those places where you can see how wisdom and expertise can diverge from one another. The Unity of Goodness Efficiency can mean different things in different contexts. In business, it means profit maximization (or cost reduction, which is often the same thing). In sports, it means winning. Always giving the ball to the best player annoys the other players who want their own shot at glory, but so long as he can be counted on to score, most coaches will err on the side of winning. Starting one-legged players will wildly improve a basketball team’s diversity score, but it’s unlikely to improve the score that matters to coaches—or fans. I’ve long argued that there’s something in the progressive mind that dislikes this whole line of thinking. They often tend to find the idea of trade-offs to be immoral or offensive. I call it the “unity of goodness” worldview. Once you develop an ear for it, you can hear it everywhere. “I refuse to believe that economic growth has to come at the expense of the environment.” “There’s no downside to putting women in combat.” “I don’t want to live in a society where families have to choose between X and Y,” or “I for one reject the idea that we have to sacrifice security for freedom—or freedom for security.” Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were masters at declaring that all hard choices were “false choices”—as if only mean-spirited people would say you can’t have your cake and eat it too. Saint Greta Nowhere is this mindset more on display in environmentalism. Everyone hawking the Green New Deal insists that it’s win-win all the way down. It’s Bastiat’s broken window parable on an industrialized scale. Spending trillions to switch to less efficient forms of energy will boost economic growth and create jobs, they insist. I’d have much more respect for these arguments if they simply acknowledged that doing a fraction of what they want will come at considerable cost. Consider Greta Thunberg, the latest child redeemer of the climate change movement. She hates planes because they spew CO2. That’s why she sailed from Sweden to a conference in New York. As symbolism, it worked, at least for the people who already agree with her. But in economic terms, she might as well have raised the Spoon Banner off the main mast of her multi-million-dollar craft (that may have a minimal carbon footprint now, but required an enormous carbon down-payment to create). The organizers of this stunt had to fly two people to New York to bring the ship back across the Atlantic. And scores of reporters flew across the Atlantic to cover her heroic act of self-denial. Her nautical virtue signaling came at a price. The organizers insist that they will buy carbon offsets to compensate for the damage done. But that’s just clever accounting. The cost is still real. And that’s not the only cost. It took her fifteen days to get to America. In other words, she actually proved the point of many of her critics. Fossil fuels come with costs all their own—geopolitical, environmental, etc.—but the upside of those downsides is far greater efficiency. If you want to get across the Atlantic in seven hours instead of two weeks, you need fossil fuels. The efficiency of modern technology reduces costs by giving human beings more time to do other stuff. The Conservative Planners The unity of goodness mindset has been spreading to the right these days as well. The new conservative critics of the free market see the efficiency of the market as a threat to other good things. And they’re right, as Joseph Schumpeter explained decades ago. For instance, just as earth-moving equipment replaces ditch-diggers in the name of efficiency, robots replace crane operators, and the communities that depended on those jobs often suffer as a result. I have no quarrel with this observation. My problem is with the way they either sell their program as cost-free, or pretend that the right experts can run things better from Washington. They know which jobs or industries need the state to protect them from the market. They know how to run Facebook or Google to improve the Gross National Virtue Index. Many of the same people who once chuckled at the Spoons story now nod sagely. I don’t mean to say that there’s no room for government to regulate economic affairs. But I am at a loss as to why I should suspend my skepticism for right-wingers when they work from the same assumptions of the left-wingers I’ve been arguing with for decades. Embracing Trumpism to Own Trump Instead I want—or I guess need—to talk about another trade-off. I’ve been very reluctant to weigh in on the Joe Walsh project for a bunch of reasons. The biggest is that I am friends with some of the people cheering it on. But I think I have to offer my take. I don’t get it. Oh, I certainly understand the desire to see a primary challenger to Trump. I share that desire. And I understand the political calculation behind the effort. It’s like when one little league team brings in some dismayingly brawny and hirsute player from Costa Rica as a ringer. The other teams feel like they have to get their own 22-year-olds with photoshopped birth certificates in order to compete. My friend Bill Kristol is convinced that Trump must be defeated and that Walsh is just the mongoose to take on the Cobra-in-Chief. I try not to recycle metaphors or analogies too much, but this seems like another example of a Col. Nicholson move. As I’ve written before, Col. Nicholson was the Alec Guinness character in The Bridge Over the River Kwai. The commanding officer of a contingent of mostly British POWs being held by the Japanese, Nicholson at first follows the rules and refuses to cooperate with his captors in their effort to use British captives as slave labor for a bridge project. But then his pride kicks in and he decides he will show the Japanese what real soldiering is like, agreeing to build the bridge as a demonstration of British superiority in civil engineering. [Spoiler alert] It’s only at the end of the film that he realizes that building the bridge may have been a kind of short-sighted moral victory, but in reality he was helping the Japanese kill allied troops because the bridge was going to be used for shipping Japanese troops and ammunition. When this realization finally arrives, he exclaims, “My God, what have I done?” Walsh’s primary brief against Trump is that Trump is temperamentally unfit for office and a con man. Fair enough. But he has to focus his indictment on Trump’s erratic behavior. Why? Because he’s a terrible spokesman for much of the rest of the case against Trump. I may not call myself “Never Trump” any more, but I was in 2016. And back then, the argument against Trump wasn’t simply that he was erratic. It was also that he wasn’t a conservative, that he happily dabbled in racism and bigotry, and that he was crude, ill-informed, and narcissistically incapable of putting his personal interests and ego aside for the good of the country. I’m sure I’m leaving a few other things out. But you get the point. Walsh may be sincere in his remorse over all the racist and incendiary things he said in the very recent past. He may regret supporting his anti-Semitic friend Paul Nehlen, though I haven’t found evidence of that. But none of that history should be seen as qualifications for the presidency, the Republican nomination, or support from conservatives. And yet, it is precisely these things that make him attractive to his conservative supporters. Trump is an entertainer who trolls his enemies with offensive statements for attention, so let’s find someone who does the exact same thing! Walsh may have been a one-term congressman, but his true vocation was as a shock-jock trolling provocateur. It’s ironic. As I’ve argued countless times, much of Trump’s bigotry in 2016 stemmed less from any core convictions than from a deep belief that the GOP’s base voters were bigoted and he needed to feed them red meat. Trump's reluctance to repudiate David Duke derived primarily from his ridiculous assumption that Duke had a large constituency he didn’t want to offend. He may have believed the Birther stuff, but he peddled it because that’s what his fans wanted. And Joe Walsh was one of those fans. It may also be true that Walsh never really believed most of the bilge he was peddling and that he was doing the same thing Trump did—feeding the trolls—on a smaller scale. But if that’s the case, then he’s a con man, too. I don’t want to beat up on Walsh too much because, again, his epiphany may be sincere. There are lots of people who pushed certain arguments too far only to recognize that the payoff was Trump and the transformation of conservatism into a form of right-wing identity politics. There are a lot of Col. Nicholsons out there. And I have too much respect for Bill Kristol to believe that he would lend his support to someone he believed to be as bigoted as the man Walsh seemed to be a few years ago. But from where I sit, the prize we should keep our eyes on isn’t defeating Trump; it’s keeping conservatism from succumbing to Trumpism after he’s gone. This isn’t easy, and no tactic is guaranteed to be successful. We’ve never been here before. My own approach is to agree with Trump policies when I think they’re right—judges, buying Greenland, etc.—and disagreeing when they’re wrong. My own crutch is to simply tell the truth as I see it, regardless of whether it fits into some larger political agenda or strategy. Truth is always a legitimate defense of any statement. But for those who see themselves as political players as well as public intellectuals, I think this is a terrible mistake. Intellectually and morally, the case for continued opposition to—or skepticism about, Trump cannot—or rather must not—be reduced to simple Trump hatred. But by rallying around Walsh—instead of, say, Mark Sanford, or Justin Amash, or, heh, General Mattis—that’s what it looks like. Because you can’t say, “I’m standing on principle in my opposition to a bigoted troll and con man as the leader of my party and my country and that’s why I am supporting a less successful bigoted troll and con man for president.” Walsh isn’t a conservative alternative to Trump; he’s an alternative version of Trump. And his candidacy only makes sense if you take the “binary choice” and “Flight 93” logic of 2016 and cast Trump in the role of Hillary. Let’s imagine the Walsh gambit works beyond anyone’s dreams and Joe Walsh ends up getting the GOP nomination (a fairly ludicrous thought experiment, I know). If so, I have no doubt that my friend Bill Kristol will say, a la Col. Nicholson, “My God, what have I done.” Various & Sundry Canine Update: It’s good to be home. The beasts were delighted to see us. Everything is settling back to normal, except for one intriguing development. I think Zoë has finally had enough with Pippa’s tennis ball routine. The other day on the midday walk with the pack, Kirsten managed to film Zoë putting an end to the tennis ball shenanigans. She took the ball and buried it. It was, to use an inapt phrase, a baller move—and she was unapologetic about it. Maybe she just didn’t like all the commotion with the other dogs, because she’s tolerant of the tennis ball stuff again. Or maybe she was being protective of her sister given that many of the other dogs in the pack are known thieves. Regardless, they’re doing well and having fun. If you haven’t tuned into The Remnant lately, please give it another try. The first episode of the week was with Niall Ferguson and the feedback has been great. The latest episode is with my friend and AEI colleague Adam White on all things constitutional. Word of mouth is really important in building up audiences, so if you can spread the word about The Remnant or this “news”letter, I’d be grateful.
The historic task of cultural change is to resolve throughout the dominant culture the distortions of rationalist human/nature dualisms that deny our ecological embodiment and membership of the global ecological community.
For (Moses) Hess, the cardinal sin of the Judaic people was to abandon their heritage, while the cardinal objective of his Communism was to persuade all other people to abandon theirs… Communism was the means for achieving Judaic supremacy over the gentiles. The gentiles were fated to be reduced to a faceless, deracinated mass. Capitalism was also capable of producing this effect, through free trade and the unfettered financialization of society, in which the management of money becomes a vast business in itself, and where the highest virtue, after obeisance to Judaism, is profit.
ve’ahavta (“love your neighbor as yourself”) admonition to Goyim for regarding their Jewish neighbors; as for the Jews themselves, haba le-horgecha, hashkem le-horgo (“he who comes to kill you, rise early and kill him first” as told in 3 Little Pigs))
(wolf) attempts to trick third pig out of his (brick) house by asking to meet him at various places, but he is outwitted each time (3rd pig rises early, does the suggested task, and saves himself from being eaten)
Garrett Hardin writes: "The essential characteristic of a tribe is that it should follow a double standard of morality -- one kind of behavior for in-group relations, another for out-group." -Wild Taboo "It is a tragic irony that discrimination has produced a species (homo sapiens) that now proposes to abandon the principle responsible for its rise to greatness."
Competitive Exclusion Principle In the competition for living space and resources between two species (or two groups that occupy the same ecological niche), one will inevitably and inexorably eliminate the other. “In a finite universe – and the organisms of our world know no other – where the total number of organisms of both kinds cannot exceed a certain number… one species will necessarily replace the other species completely if the two species are “complete competitors, i.e., live the same kind of life.”
Elites "Going Rogue" Suggests The Global Neoliberal Architecture Is Collapsing (UK) by Michael Every via Rabobank (article full quote, with added links, annotations, Sep.2.2019)
this article a hot news item Aug.28++ Rabobank | wkpdMichael Every Listen carefully. (kerplop, rogue-fish heading for open water) That is the sound of going rogue – and bond yields further through the floor. Yesterday UK PM Boris Johnson (BoJo) announced he is going to prorogue– or close– Parliament, meaning that when MPs come back to sit next this week they will only do so briefly, and will then not return until 14 October, when there will be a new Queen’s Speech to launch BoJo’s slate of legislation as the new PM. So far, so technical. Yet what this effectively means is that there will be a very narrow window next week, and then a slightly larger one in the final two weeks of October, for Parliament to act to prevent Hard Brexit on Halloween. This is explosive and unprecedented stuff, politically. The British constitution is largely unwritten and so allows wiggle room, and the government insists they have checked the legality of all they are proposing; nonetheless, as the press and opposition note, it smells awful. This is clearly a case of Erskine May (the ‘parliamentary bible’ that looks and sounds like it belongs in a Harry Potter tale) turning into Erskine Maybe or Erskine Might. Indeed, BoJo is being accused of a “coup”, a “constitutional outrage”, an “abomination”, and of being a “tinpot dictator”, though this being the UK, perhaps that should be “teapot”; but there is not just tea but a genuinely revolutionary atmosphere brewing. Bob Kerslake, former head of the civil service, is quoted in the Guardian as stating:
“We are reaching the point where the civil service must consider putting its stewardship of the country ahead of service to the government of the day.” Lord Kerslake said.
…the global neoliberal architecture collapsing, and perhaps taking some liberal-democratic architecture with it.
If you think that is hyperbole, consider this benchmark – how would we be reacting if the armed forces in any country were saying what Kerslake and Dudley just suggested? (go rogue) This is not going to change for the better until we get a global new paradigm emerging – and that is a long way off. (Yes, Italy might cobble together a Europhile-PD/Europhobe-5 Star government, but how sustainable is that going to be, and will 5 Star’s party members support it? (not likely) None of this is to take a stance on what any particular executive or legislature is doing on any particular policy front. Rather, it is an analytical view of how bitterly, deeply divided many countries are between a status quo ante, with its neat technocratic rules and regulations, and a populist backlash from those who feel these no longer provide a path to what they used to have and still want. One can argue “executive vs. legislature” or “executive vs. gate-keepers”; yet when the executive speaks of the “will of the people” as its justification it gets very Hannah Arendt very fast. Equally, however, what if the legislature and gate-keepers really are refusing to recognise the need for wrenching populist change, no matter how painful short term? One can argue it left and right and back and forth – but ultimately we will need to see a winner. And that is what markets need to focus on: not who is ‘right’, but who wins and what that means. So back to the practicalities of Brexit. Parliament has only a few options: sit in another location and call themselves Parliament regardless of the prorogue – is that legitimate or also a dangerous precedent?; pass a law which would cancel the proroguing, which ironically would have to be signed by the Queen who just signed off on the prorogue; call for judicial review of the proroguing, which is on shaky ground according to government lawyers; pass a law to repeal Article 50, which would trigger an inverse political crisis as large as what BoJo is doing; or call a vote of no confidence in BoJo… at which point figures close to him have stated he will wait the allotted 14 days and then dissolve Parliament for new elections… AFTER the Brexit deadline of 31 October. In short, this is all likely to come to a neo-Cromwellian (classic rogue reprised) head next week (early Sep), and Hard Brexit odds are right up there with an election leading us back to the same Revoke vs Hard Brexit binary. What was the market reaction to the UK heading into such deep, dark waters? GBP initially sold off and then recovered to hold around $1.22 (USD). Hardly an emerging market seeing meltdown; by contrast, look at what happened to the Argentinean Peso (ARS) yesterday (Aug.27), which is currently around 58 perUSD when it started the year at below 38. Likewise, Gilt (bond) yields declined 2bp (basis points) at the short end and 6bp at 10(year)s and 5bp at 30(year)s. That is hardly the reaction to a country about to implode and default. (Low yields mean high prices, ergo investor confidence in lasting value.) Then again, it is hardly a ringing endorsement of the economic outlook either… which, together with US 10(year)s (Treasury Bonds) at 1.46% (yield) and German 10(year)s at -0.72% explains why we are crashing through our self-made Thin Ice in the first place. That and the fact that China continues to slow due to its vast self-made problems, according to the Bloomberg Economics gauge. On which final note, today’s CNY fixing was $7.0858, again slightly lower than the previous day, but again much stronger than where the fix was implied ($7.1085) and where the market currently is at $7.1652. That’s another piece of neoliberal convention going rogue – the PBOC is saying something, markets are saying otherwise,… and nothing is happening to them (PBOC) as a result. (emphases in original) New World Order In Meltdown Aug.31 | 0hdg update Sep.4 Boris Johnson defeated over Brexit strategy Sep.4.19 8 min | StraitsTimes background videos on Brexit Sean (SGTRpt) interviews Brit "Daddy Dragon" (Graham Moore), Brexit became law Mar.29, and J Assange will be safe in Britain 25 min Brexit: Government may ignore legislation to stop No-deal says Gove 14.3 min
As MPs opposed to a No Deal Brexit prepare to try and thwart it in Parliament, the government has launched a £100 million advertising campaign, urging people to "Get Ready for Brexit".
Futures Slide After US-China APEC Clash, Apple Production Cuts
After a dramatic end to the APEC summit in Papua New Guniea which concluded in disarray, without agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history amid the escalating rivalry between the United States and China, U.S. index futures initially traded sharply lower as investors digested signs that America-China trade tensions are set to persist, however they staged a modest rebound around the time Europe opened, and have traded mixed since amid subdued volumes as a holiday-shortened week begins in the US. Last Friday, US stocks jumped after President Trump said that he might not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions. However, tensions between the two superpowers were clearly on display at the APEC meeting over the weekend where Vice President Mike Pence said in a blunt speech that there would be no end to U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods until China changed its ways. “The comments from Trump were seen as offering a glimmer of hope that further tariff action could be held in abeyance,” said NAB’s head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill. “The exchange of barbs between Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping in PNG on the weekend continues to suggest this is unlikely.” US Futures were also pressured following a report by the WSJ that Apple has cut iPhone production, creating turmoil for suppliers and sending AAPL stock 1.6% lower and pressuring Nasdaq futures. Yet while early sentiment was downbeat following the APEC fiasco, US futures staged a rebound as shares in both Europe and Asia rose while Treasuries declined, the dollar faded an initial move higher as traders focused on the Fed’s new-found concerns over the global economy, and the pound advanced amid speculation that the worst may be over for Theresa May, since the potential for a vote of no confidence in May may be losing traction: the Sun reported that 42 lawmakers have sent letters of no confidence to Graham Brady, 6 more are needed to trigger a leadership challenge Asia took a while to warm up but made a strong finish, with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.9% and Japan's Nikkei 0.7% higher, helping Europe start the week off strong too as a 1 percent jump in mining, tech and bank stocks helped traders shrug off last week’s Brexit woes. At the same time, stocks fell in Australia and New Zealand, where the Aussie and kiwi currencies dropped after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence attacked China at the weekend APEC summit. Telecommunications and construction shares pushed Europe's Stoxx 600 Index higher, along with stocks in Italy, where Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio said the government is ready for dialog with the European Commission over the country’s budget, which however seems just more semantics as Italy refused to concede to European budget demands. Meanwhile, in addition to confusion over trade, the outlook for U.S. interest rates was also uncertain. While Federal Reserve policymakers are still signaling rate increases ahead, they also sounded more concerned about a potential global slowdown, leading markets to suspect the tightening cycle may not have much further to run and Morgan Stanley to write that "We Sense A Shift In Tone From The Fed." Goldman Sachs also chimed in, saying it expected the pace of U.S. economic growth to slow toward the global average next year. The bank now sees a broad dollar decline next year, and revised its long-standing bearish view on the Japanese yen and tipped Latin American currencies, the Swedish krona, the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Israeli shekel to rise. “We see several changes to the global economic backdrop which, combined with a few negative medium-run factors, point to more downside than upside to the broad dollar in 2019,” Goldman economists said in an outlook report. Goldman's bearish tilt will focus attention on an appearance by New York Fed President John Williams later on Monday to see if he echoes the same theme. As Reuters notes, investors have already cut odds of further hikes, with a December move now priced at 73%, down from over 90%. Futures imply rates around 2.74% for the end of next year, compared to 2.93% early this month. As a result, yields on 10-year Treasurys declined to 3.08 percent, from a recent top of 3.25 percent while the currency market saw the dollar fade early gains while the pound rebounded from sharp losses last week as Theresa May prepared to appeal to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal as the premier fights almost insurmountable Parliamentary opposition. May said on Sunday that toppling her would risk delaying Brexit as she faces the possibility of a leadership challenge from within her own party. With both pro-EU and pro-Brexit lawmakers unhappy with the draft agreement, it is not clear that she will be able to win the backing of parliament, increasing the risk that Britain will leave the EU without a deal. Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars held on to their declines after Mike Pence's attack on China this weekend fueled concern Sino-U.S. trade tensions will worsen; the yen neared a month-to-date high on the risk-aversion, onshore yuan weakened for the first time in five days. Treasuries slipped while European bonds were mixed, with core notes slipping and peripherals rising led by Italy. In the U.S., trading activity may be thinned before the Thanksgiving holiday later this week. In commodity markets, gold found support from the drop in the dollar and held at $1,1220.19. Oil prices suffered their sixth straight week of losses last week, but climbed toward $57 a barrel in New York on Monday. Bitcoin dropped further below $6,000, at one point touching a one-year intraday low.
S&P500 futures down 0.2% to 2,738.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 359.37
MXAP up 0.4% to 152.43
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 488.43
Nikkei up 0.7% to 21,821.16
Topix up 0.5% to 1,637.61
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 26,372.00
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,703.51
Sensex up 0.9% to 35,758.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,693.66
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,100.56
German 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 0.391%
Euro up 0.04% to $1.1419
Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 3.119%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.632%
Brent futures up 0.4% to $67.05/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,219.37
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.41
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg:
Theresa May will appeal to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal, as she fights almost insurmountable opposition in Parliament and a possible leadership challenge. You do the math: Can May get her Brexit deal through Parliament?
Vice President Mike Pence sharpened U.S. attacks on China during a week of summits that ended Sunday, most notably with a call for nations to avoid loans that would leave them indebted to Beijing
An Asia- Pacific summit ended in tumult after the U.S. and China failed to agree on language in a final statement, the latest sign that a trade war between the world’s biggest economies won’t end anytime soon
The European Central Bank shouldn’t rush to spell out how long it plans to reinvest proceeds from bonds maturing under its asset-purchases program, said French policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau
President Donald Trump said he wouldn’t stop acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker if he curtails special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible collusion by Trump campaign officials with Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election
U.K. house asking prices fell from a year earlier for the first time since 2011, led by declines in London and among the most expensive properties.
President Donald Trump said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has denied to him perhaps five times any role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the U.S. may never know whether he was involved in the murder
Trump’s famously opaque business will face a bracing new reality next year when House Democrats hit it with a flurry of subpoenas for the first time
The European Central Bank shouldn’t rush to spell out how long it plans to reinvest proceeds from bonds maturing under its asset-purchases program, said French policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau
The European Union is hammering out the first bloc-wide rules to prevent foreign investments from threatening national security, as Chinese acquisitions foster political unease
Hedge funds’ wagers against West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude soared for a seventh straight week, the longest global short-selling streak in data going back to 2011
Asian equity markets began the week somewhat cautious on lingering trade concerns and after disunity at the APEC summit over the weekend which failed to agree on a joint communique for the first time in history due to US-China tensions. ASX 200 (-0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) traded mixed in which nearly all of Australia’s sectors were in the red aside from miners, while Nikkei 225 was positive as participants digested mixed trade data which showed a jump in imports. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.9%) were choppy amid trade-related uncertainty following the verbal jabs between US and China in which Chinese President Xi warned that countries which embraced protectionism were doomed to fail and US Vice President Pence later commented the US could more than double the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Finally, 10yr JGBs futures rose to match the YTD high as they tracked the recent upside in T-notes and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 800bln of JGBs in the belly to the short-end of the curve. APEC summit ended without an agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history after China refused to sign amid US-China tensions, while there had been comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping that countries which embraced protectionism were "doomed to failure" and US Vice President Pence later commented that he was prepared to "more than double" the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Top Asian News - China’s Ping An Buys Stake in German Fintech Incubator Finleap - Japan Bank Shares Fall Most in Month After U.S. Yields Drop - Asian Markets Come out of Their Torpor as Stock Gains Accelerate - An Accountant Stirs Debate as India Central Bank Board Meets Major European indices are in the green, with the outperforming FTSE MIB (+1.1%) bolstered by news that Luigi Gubitosi has been appointed as the new CEO of Telecom Italia (+4.3%). The SMI (-0.2%) gave up initial gains and is lagging its peers, weighed on Swatch (-4.0%) and Richemont (-1.4%) following unfavourable price outlook for both by Bank of America Merill Lynch. Sectors are mostly all in the green, with outperformance in telecom names, while energy names are lower given pullback in oil prices in recent trade and consumer discretionary names are weighed on by Renault (-7.0%), with the company shares extending losses following reports that Nissan’s boss has been arrested in Japan regarding allegations of financial violations. Renault shares are hit given the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance. Elsewhere, BPost (-5.7%) shares are hit following a downgrade at HSBC, while Tele2 (+1.8%), are near the top of the Stoxx 600 after being upgraded at Berenberg. Top European News
Villeroy Sees No Need to Define Reinvestments Length in December
U.K. Housing Woes Deepen With First Asking-Price Drop Since 2011
EU Set to Tighten Rules on Foreign Investment to Fend Off China
New Telecom Italia Boss Deepens Activist Shareholder’s Clout
In FX, the Greenback has regained some composure following its downturn at the end of last week amidst soft US data and cautious if not concerned or outright dovish Fed rhetoric (Clarida conscious about contagion from slower global growth, Kaplan envisaging headwinds from rising debt and Harker opposed to a December rate hike), but the DXY remains capped below a key Fib level (96.590) and the Dollar overall is mixed vs major counterparts.
NZD/AUD/CAD- All on the back foot against their US peer and underperforming other G10 currencies, with the Kiwi retreating below 0.6850 and undermined by cross flows as Aud/Nzd rebounds further from recent lows towards 1.0700 and Aud/Usd holds above 0.7300 in wake of last week’s strong Aussie jobs data.
GBP- The Pound has derived some comfort, or is simply just relieved that the Tory uprising and challenge to UK PM May has not reached the minimum level required to trigger a no confidence vote and adding another potential spanner in the Brexit works. However, the situation remains far from stable and certain given that Parliament still has to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and the room for further renegotiation with the EU looks limited at best ahead of Sunday’s Summit and more meetings planned in the run up to try and sound out whether there is scope to tweak elements of the draft. Cable has tested and marginally breached last Friday’s peak at 1.2877, but far from convincingly amidst supply ahead of 1.2900, and with the 21 DMA also representing formidable tech resistance just above the big figure (1.2918-20). Meanwhile, EuGbp has not pulled back too far below 0.8900, as the single currency holds firm in its own right.
EM- The Rand has made an encouraging start to the week, with a break through 14.0000 vs the Usd exposing recent peaks and momentum to re-test 13.8700 ahead of 13.6000 (50% Fib).
In commodities, Brent (+0.5%) and WTI (+0.1%) are in positive territory, albeit off highs, following market expectations that Saudi Arabia will steer OPEC and Russia to cut oil supply. Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Novak said the country is planning to sign an output agreement with OPEC at their December 6th meeting in Vienna. Overnight gains in the complex were driven by reports that Saudi is said to want oil prices around USD 80.00/bbl. Elsewhere, Iranian President Rouhani emerged on state TV and stated that the US has failed to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero and Iran will continue to sell their crude. Conversely, Gold (-0.2%) prices fell this morning, with traders citing profit taking from last week’s gains, while Palladium is nearing parity with gold as an all-time high of USD 1185.4/oz was hit on Friday. Separately, copper is lower following tension between the US and China at the APEC summit which ended without an agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history. It's a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note being the Euro Area and the November NAHB housing market index reading in the US. Away from that, the Fed's Williams is due to speak in the afternoon, while BoJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau and his predecessor, Noyer, will all speak at the Europlace Financial Forum. Euro Area finance ministers are also due to gather in Brussels to seek to make progress on Franco-German plans to shore up the currency union. US Event Calendar
10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 67, prior 68
10:45am: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Q&Ain the Bronx
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Brexit was left in a bit of phoney war this weekend. We’re no closer to a leadership contest for Mrs May but it could still happen at any point. The Sun -citing their “extensive investigation” - has concluded that 42 lawmakers have sent letters of no-confidence in the PM (48 needed). Overall though more Conservative MPs are disliking the deal - and will vote against it - than will ask for a leadership battle in our opinion. The consensus that is forming amongst the Conservative MPs who dislike the Withdrawal Agreement is that it can be improved upon. This time next week we will have just had the Sunday EU summit to sign off their side of the deal but its not clear how meaningful tweaks could be made before this and before the agreement goes before UK Parliament in the next 2-3 weeks. The only thing that could be fleshed out is more on the future relationship between the UK and Europe as Mrs May travels to Brussels this week to try to progress on this. That might appease some MPs but likely not enough to help the vote pass. As such my personal view is that May stays on as leader, the EU offer no concession, the vote doesn’t get through Parliament and then the fun and games start. The UK may go back to Europe and ask for specific concessions at this point or we may end up with a path towards a hard Brexit or a second referendum. Quite binary options. For the EU maybe the gamble is to offer nothing and assume the UK Parliament eventually offers a second referendum and voters eventually decide to stay. This increases the risk of a cliff-edge hard Brexit but also one where no Brexit happens at all. This story has a lot of legs left in it. There was lots in the press this weekend about Brexit but interestingly for me as a credit strategist by day, there was also a fair bit of negative press about credit with some of the more sensational articles suggesting that credit could soon blow up financial markets due to (amongst other things) the weight of US BBBs about to swamp the HY market, record levels of Cov-lite issuance and due to record high US corporate leverage. For us there needs to some perspective. We have been on the underweight side of credit all year, more weighted to a US underweight of late but that’s been more of a valuation play than over too much concerns about immediate credit quality. The US economy remains strong and credit deterioration is likely to remain idiosyncratic until it rolls over. At that point we will have big problems though and last week’s activity made us more confident liquidity will be bad when the cycle turns as we moved a fairly large amount on nervousness as much as anything else. GE, PG&E, plunging oil and the factors discussed above provided a jolt but we don’t think this is enough for now to impact the economy so credit will probably stabilise. However once there is actual broad economic weakness, this last week will be a dress rehearsal for the problems ahead and there will be little two-way activity with spreads gapping wider. However that’s for further down the cycle. For now credit’s main problem has been it hadn’t responded enough to the pick up in vol. The good news is that this is starting to catch-up and correct. Last week, EU non-fin. IG spread widened by 13bps and HY by 45bps while those on US IG by 14bps and HY by 49bps. Big moves relative to a small down week in equities. Looking ahead to the highlights for this week, I’d imagine if you’re in the US this will revolve around family, friends and perhaps Turkey as you sit down for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Outside of that we get the flash PMIs around the globe on Friday which in a period of nervousness about the global growth outlook will be scrutinised in thin post holiday trading. Black Friday will also mark the start of Xmas shopping season for retailers. Also worth noting is the European Commission's opinions on the budget plans of the Euro Area countries on Wednesday. While the EC formally has three weeks to provide an opinion on Italy's new fiscal plan following their budget resubmission last week, it's possible that they will issue this for Italy alongside this and thus kick starting the EDP process. This morning in Asia, markets have kicked off the week on a positive note with the Nikkei (+0.48%), Hang Seng (+0.40%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) all up along with most Asian markets. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.33%) are pointing towards a weaker start. In terms of overnight data releases, the UK Rightmove house prices index fell -0.2% yoy (-1.7% mom), first dip since 2011, led by declines in London (-2.4% yoy). Japan’s October adjusted trade balance stood at –JPY 302.7bn (vs. –JPY 48.3bn) as growth in imports (+19.9% yoy vs. +14.1% yoy expected) outpaced the growth in exports (+8.2% yoy vs. +8.9% yoy expected). In other news, the US Vice President Pence delivered some sharp rhetoric on China over the weekend where he called upon countries to avoid taking debt from China as that would leave them indebted to China. He also added that the US wasn’t in a rush to end the trade war and would “not change course until China changes its ways.” Elsewhere, the APEC summit ended in disarray on Sunday after the US and China failed to agree on a joint statement, reflecting tensions due to the ongoing trade war. This is the first time since the summit began in 1993 that no joint statement was issued. Looking back briefly now to last week before we focus on the full day-byday week ahead. Friday was an eventful day for market-moving rhetoric from policymakers, highlighted by Fed Vice Chair Clarida and President Trump. First, the dollar shed -0.52% after Clarida discussed the global economy and said there “is some evidence it’s slowing.” Two-year treasury yields rallied -3.8bps (-11.0bps on the week) and the market removed 6bps of Fed hikes through the end of next year (priced out a total of 16bps on the week). This came despite Clarida’s other remarks, which emphasised the strong US economy and his support for moving policy to a “neutral” level, consistent with the FOMC’s projections. Later in the session, Chicago Fed President Evans said that he too wants to move policy to neutral, and then another 50bps or so beyond that level. Later on Friday, President Trump injected optimism on the trade policy front by telling reporters that China wants to make a deal and that he may not institute further tariffs. China has apparently offered a list of potential concessions, which could prove to be the basis of a trade deal at the 30 November G20 summit. Even though unnamed White House sources subsequently tried to soften expectations, the market rallied with the S&P 500 up +0.22% (-1.31% on the week). The DOW and Russell 2000 closed -2.22% and -1.42% on the week, though they both rallied on the President’s comments as well (+0.22% and +0.49% on Friday, respectively). After Pence’s weekend comments we should probably discount some of the above optimism. Other markets were already closed when President Trump’s comments boosted sentiment. The STOXX 600 closed the week -2.20% (-0.20% on Friday), while UK equities outperformed marginally, with the FTSE 100 shedding only -1.29% on the week (-0.34% Friday). This reflected the weaker pound, which retreated -1.13% versus the dollar (+0.41% Friday) and -1.83% versus the euro (its worst such week since July 2017, and -0.38% on Friday). Asian equities were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite advancing +3.09% (+0.41% Friday) on trade optimism and the Nikkei down -2.56% (-0.57% Friday). German Bunds rallied -4.0bps last week, while peripheral spreads widened slightly with Italy leading the way. BTPs sold off +8.8bps (flat on Friday) as the government continued to escalate its confrontation with the European Commission. It's a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note being September construction output data for the Euro Area and the November NAHB housing market index reading in the US. Away from that, the Fed's Williams is due to speak in the afternoon, while BoJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau and his predecessor, Noyer, will all speak at the Europlace Financial Forum. Euro Area finance ministers are also due to gather in Brussels to seek to make progress on Franco-German plans to shore up the currency union.
In Budget 2018, no budget decision was taken without being informed by Gender-based Analysis Plus (GBA+).
What is GBA+?
GBA+ is an analytical tool used to assess how different groups of women, men and gender-diverse people may experience policies, programs and initiatives. The “plus“ acknowledges that GBA goes beyond biological (sex) and socio-cultural (gender) differences to consider intersecting factors such as race, ethnicity, age, disability and sexual orientation. GBA+ provides the foundation for gender budgeting—ensuring that the impacts of individual budget proposals on different groups of people are understood, supporting better policy-making, priority-setting and decision-making
Budget 2018 goes further, integrating considerations of gender impacts at each step of the budgeting process, and introducing a new Gender Results Framework. This Framework includes goals and indicators that will guide the Government’s decisions and measure Canada’s progress in achieving greater gender equality. And to ensure that gender remains a key consideration for future governments, the Government will introduce new GBA+ legislation to make gender budgeting a permanent part of the federal budget-making process
The Government will ask the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs to examine making it a requirement that when any Minister of Finance tables a Budget in the House of Commons, a GBA+ analysis of the budget documents must be tabled concurrently
To strengthen Canada’s ongoing capacity to apply the gender and diversity lens, the Government will make Status of Women Canada an official Department of the Government of Canada
In Canada today, women earn 31 per cent less than men do. Put another way, the median income for women is $28,120, compared with $40,890 for men.
For every dollar of hourly wages a man working full-time earns in Canada, a woman working full-time earns about 88 cents.
Introducing historic pay equity legislation will give more Canadian women fair compensation for their hard work and will set the standard for how women’s work is valued in the workplace. The Government is proud to lead these efforts to reduce the gender wage gap.
The Government will bring in a legislated proactive pay equity regime in federally regulated sectors, which would apply to approximately 1.2 million employed individuals. This legislation would: Ensure that both wages and other benefits are evaluated in a gender-neutral way. The Government will commit [3 million] over five years, starting in 2018–19, to implement pay transparency.
Repeal previous legislation such as the Public Sector Equitable Compensation Act which is inconsistent with the goal of pay equity
When women come together, change happens Across the country, women’s organizations play an important role in raising social awareness and mobilizing communities to change laws, attitudes and social norms.
The most common scenario, however, involves the mother taking on the primary caregiving responsibilities once their child is born. both in the short term following the arrival of their child, and over the longer term, often due to the challenges of re-entering the workforce after time spent away.
To help more women entrepreneurs take their businesses to the next level, the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) launched a $50 million fund in 2016 to give women-led technology firms greater access to venture and growth capital—and based a highly promising pipeline, the fund was increased to $70 million in November 2017.
Recognizing that barriers to women’s labour market participation can be complex and slow to move, the Government will also host a major symposium on women and the workplace in the spring of 2019. The Government will provide $1.5 million over 2018–19 and 2019–20 for this symposium.
The BDC’s 2015 commitment to increase term lending to majority women-owned businesses to at least $700 million over three years has also been surpassed, and as of January 31, 2018, the BDC has lent $912 million to an additional 1,636 women-owned firms
To support more initiatives that build the capacity of equality-seeking organizations, reduce gender inequality in Canada, and promote a fairer and more productive society, the Government proposes to provide $100 million over five years to Status of Women Canada to enhance the Women’s Program. This investment will increase organizational and sector capacity on a needs basis, allowing organizations to participate in ongoing training, skills development and community engagement, while reducing competition among equality seeking organizations for funding. This investment will also ensure better funding for organizations focused on vulnerable women, including groups such as Indigenous women, women with disabilities, members of the LGBTQ2 communities, and newcomer and migrant women.
The Government proposes to provide Status of Women Canada with $1.3 million in 2018–19 to host a national roundtable on GBA+. The Government also proposes to provide Status of Women Canada with additional funding of up to $7.2 million over five years to lead a national conversation on gender equality with young Canadians
This pattern of women's underparticipation in higher-paid, maledominated trades has meant that women are not only comparatively underpaid in the trades sectors, but also wrongly perceived as uninterested in or incapable of pursuing careers in the higher-paid male-dominated fields.
The Government will provide $46 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $10 million per year thereafter, for the Pre-Apprenticeship Program. This program will encourage underrepresented groups—including but not limited to women, Indigenous Peoples, newcomers and persons with disabilities–to explore careers in the skilled trades.
Investments of more than $40 billion over the next 10 years will create over 100,000 new housing units and repair 300,000 housing units for Canadians. Moreover, at least 25 per cent of National Housing Strategy investments will support projects that specifically target the unique needs of women and girls, including senior women who are more likely than senior men to need affordable housing.
As part of the Government’s commitment to address gaps in gender and diversity data, the Government is also proposing to provide $1.5 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $0.2 million per year ongoing, to the Department of Finance Canada to work with Statistics Canada and Status of Women to develop a broader set of indicators and statistics to measure and track Canada’s progress on achieving shared growth and gender equality objectives.
the Government is allocating $19.9 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, to pilot an Apprenticeship Incentive Grant for Women. Under the Grant, women in male-dominated Red Seal trades would receive $3,000 for each of their first two years of training (up to $6,000). This, in combination with the existing Apprenticeship Completion Grant valued at $2,000, will result in a combined $8,000 in support over the course of their training for a female apprentice training to become a welder, machinist pipe fitter or any other skilled trade that is male-dominated.
To support greater gender equality in the home and in the workplace, the Government proposes to provide $1.2 billion over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $344.7 million per year thereafter, to introduce a new EI Parental Sharing Benefit. The Benefit will provide additional weeks of “use it or lose it” EI parental benefits, when both parents agree to share parental leave. This incentive is expected to be available starting June 2019
In Canada, fewer than one in six businesses (16 per cent) are majority-owned by women, and businesses owned by women tend to be smaller than businesses owned by men, although the difference varies by industry, according to the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) based on 2014 data from Statistics Canada. Women entrepreneurs face unique barriers in accessing capital, supply chains and export programs compared to their male counterparts. Women entrepreneurs may also have a harder time receiving training and finding mentorship. The Government believes that with greater support, women-led businesses could enter, compete and win on the world stage, boosting economic growth and creating more good, well-paying jobs here at home.
Budget 2018 proposes to provide $105 million over five years to the regional development agencies to support investments in women-led businesses, of those SMEs who participate in federal procurement, 10 per cent are women-owned. The Government intends to introduce measures to increase this participation rate by 50 per cent (to at least 15 per cent), in order to reflect the current proportion of SMEs majority led by women entrepreneurs in the broader population. The Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) will coordinate a series of boot camps across Canada for promising women entrepreneurs looking to start their business
Budget 2018 proposes that the Government will invest $10 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, to connect women with expanded export services and opportunities through the Business Women in International Trade Program
The Government will make available $1.4 billion over three years, starting in 2018–19, in new financing for women entrepreneurs through the BDC. This commitment is in addition to an increase to $200 million (from $70 million) for investments in women-led technology firms over five years through the BDC’s Women in Technology Fund
the Government will make available $250 million over three years, starting in 2018–19, through Export Development Canada (EDC). As well, EDC will support the international success of women entrepreneurs by providing expert advice
To support women entrepreneurs in agriculture, the Government will create and launch a new lending product in 2018–19 designed specifically for women entrepreneurs through Farm Credit Canada.
The Government is committed both to improving the representation of women among venture capital firm managers, and to ensuring venture capital funds are investing in Canada’s promising women-owned firms.
The Government’s Venture Capital Catalyst Initiative, launched in December 2017 with the goal of injecting up to $1.5 billion into Canada’s venture capital market, includes a strong focus on gender balance and diversity. All proposals submitted under the Initiative are expected to demonstrate how they will improve gender representation among venture capital fund managers and portfolio companies, and will be assessed on this basis.
Budget 2018 announces that the Government’s coming reform to federal innovation programs will include a universal goal to improve the participation of underrepresented groups, including women entrepreneurs, in the innovation economy
To accelerate the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge, data and best practices for women entrepreneurs, the Government will make available $9.5 million over three years to support third-party proposals through a competitive process, to be administered by Innovation, Science and Economic Development.
one third of Canadian men and one-sixth of Canadian women regularly participated in sport. Men are also approximately two to three times more likely to be coaches, officials or in other leadership positions than women. This is why through Budget 2018, the Government is setting a target to achieve gender equality in sport at every level by 2035, and proposes to provide an initial $30 million over three years to support data and research and innovative practices to promote women and girls’ participation in sport, and provide support to national sports organizations to promote the greater inclusion of women and girls in all facets of sport.
$77.5 million over five years, and $16 million per year ongoing, to Status of Women Canada for a Gender-Based Violence Knowledge Centre, data collection and research, and programming;
$9.5 million over five years, and $2 million per year ongoing, to the Public Health Agency of Canada to support implementing and testing ways to prevent gender-based violence, including child maltreatme
Gender equality is not just about women and girls. That is why the Government of Canada will introduce a strategy focused on men and boys. The Government will provide $1.8 million over two years to Status of Women Canada to develop an engagement strategy for men and boys that promotes equality and pilots innovative, targeted approaches to addressing inequality.
D I V E R S I T Y
Diversity is Canada’s strength and a cornerstone of Canadian identity. Recent domestic and international events, like the rise of ultranationalist movements, and protests against immigration,
ex. Story: Fawzia immigrated to Canada in 2009 from Somalia, where she was a practicing gynecologist/obstetrician. After spending a year attempting to get recertified to practice medicine in Canada, she decided to volunteer at a local hospital, where she spends her time helping escort patients between departments. She loves being back in a hospital setting but misses being able to care for her own patients one-on-one, and worries about losing the practical skills that are an important part of her profession.
The Government of Canada intends to address gaps in gathering data and to better use data related to gender and diversity. This includes proposing $6.7 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $0.6 million per year ongoing, for Statistics Canada to create a new Centre for Gender, Diversity and Inclusion Statistics.
Budget 2018 also proposes to provide $5 million per year to Status of Women Canada to undertake research and data collection in support of the Government’s Gender Results Framework. One of the first projects this would support is an analysis of the unique challenges visible minority and newcomer women face in finding employment in science, technology engineering and mathematics occupations
The Government will launch a three-year pilot to support programming for newcomer women who are also members of visible minorities and provide $31.8 million over three years starting in 2018–19.
Budget 2018 proposes a new investment of $210 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, with $50 million per year ongoing, for the Canada Research Chairs Program. The purpose of this investment will be to better support early-career researchers, while increasing diversity among nominated researchers, including increasing the number of women who are nominated for Canada Research Chairs
As the National Research Council re-imagines itself to deliver on the Innovation and Skills Plan, it will be taking targeted action to include more women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, persons with disabilities and visible minorities among its researchers. Targeted actions include ensuring there are no unintended barriers to the participation of women researchers and entrepreneurs in the National Research Council’s programs, as well as increased outreach to diverse groups of Canadians so they are fully aware of its programs and the opportunity to participate. The government proposes to provide $540 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $108 million annually for measures that will reinforce its research strengths and role as a trusted collaboration partner of industry.
legislation recently introduced in Parliament by the Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development proposes amendments to the Canada Business Corporations Act that would require federally incorporated corporations to make annual disclosures to shareholders regarding the diversity of their senior management teams and boards of directors.
the Government will further support corporate inclusion by publicly recognizing corporations that are committed to promoting women, including minority women, to senior management positions and boards of directors. In partnership with the private sector, the Government will create an annual award for Canadian corporations showing leadership in this area.
Canada's Start-up Visa Program provides permanent resident immigration status to innovative global entrepreneurs with the potential to grow their companies in Canada. Budget 2018 proposes to provide $4.6 million over five years, beginning in 2018–19, and $0.8 million per year ongoing, to enhance the Start-up Visa client-service experience by ensuring applicants, private sector partners and immigration officials are able to process applications electronically and more efficiently
As a first step toward recognizing the significant and unique challenges faced by Black Canadians, the Government also proposes to provide $19 million over five years that will be targeted to enhance local community supports for youth at risk and to develop research in support of more culturally focused mental health programs in the Black Canadian community.
the Government is committed to increase the disaggregation of various data sets by race. This will help governments and service providers better understand the intersectional dimensions of major issues, with a particular focus on the experience of Black Canadians
In order to obtain more inclusive data on sex and gender, Statistics Canada officials have been working with LGBTQ2 organizations to adjust Census of Population questions and response options to better reflect how people identify themselves, for example, by allowing respondents to answer in a non-binary fashion. This will provide critical information to help understand and meet the needs of LGBTQ2 Canadians.
$1.5 million over five years to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to enhance the Settlement Program.
$2.4 million over five years, and $0.6 million per year ongoing, to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police for cultural competency training for federal law enforcement officers;
the Government proposes to provide $173.2 million to support security operations at the Canada-U.S. border and the processing of asylum claimants arriving in 2018–19. Funding would be used to manage the increased number of people seeking asylum in Canada this year, many of whom arrive with their families seeking quick, safe and compassionate processing.
The Government proposes to provide $194.1 million over five years, beginning in 2018–19, and $33.19 million per year ongoing, to ensure the rights of temporary foreign workers in Canada are protected and enforced through a robust compliance regime.
The Government proposes to invest an additional $5 billion over five years to ensure that Indigenous children and families have an equal chance to succeed in life, to build the capacity of Indigenous governments, and to accelerate self-determination and selfgovernment agreements with Indigenous Peoples based on the recognition and implementation of rights.
the Government of Canada will be moving away from the use of loans to fund Indigenous participation in the negotiation of modern treaties. Starting in 2018–19, Indigenous participation in modern treaty negotiations will be funded through non-repayable contributions.
The Government will engage with affected Indigenous groups on how best to address past and present negotiation loans, including forgiveness of loans.
The Government released its Feminist International Assistance Policy, focusing on six interlinked areas: gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls, human dignity, peace and security, inclusive governance, environment and climate action, and growth that works for everyone.
The Government proposes to provide an additional $2 billion over five years, starting in 2018–19, to the International Assistance Envelope.
In support of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Feminist International Assistance Policy puts women and girls at the centre of its plan as agents of positive change for their families, communities and countries. Gender equality will be a focus of all of Canada’s international assistance investments to address economic, political and social inequalities that prevent individuals from reaching their full potential
$180 million over three years for the Global Partnership for Education to support girls’ education and help strengthen education systems in developing countries.
$15 million over four years to Marie Stopes Tanzania to provide girls and women with improved access to family planning information and services.
$6 million to designated United Nations missions to improve their ability to support and benefit women’s increased participation in peace operations.
$15 million to launch a global fund to support the deployment of women peacekeepers.
Strengthen its focus on sexual and reproductive health and rights by doubling its commitment to $650 million over the next three years.
the Government proposes to provide $1.5 billion over five years, starting in 2018– 19, on a cash basis ($553 million on an accrual basis), and $492.7 million per year thereafter, from existing unallocated International Assistance Envelope resources
95 per cent of Canada’s bilateral international development assistance will either target or integrate gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls by 2021–22.
Half of the world’s 22.5 million refugee population is made up of women and girls, making this population a significant segment of those fleeing war,
the Government commits to increase the number of vulnerable refugee women and girls to be resettled in Canada as government-assisted refugees. Specifically, Budget 2018 proposes funding of $20.3 million over five years, beginning in 2018–19, to welcome an extra 1,000 refugee women and girls from various conflict zones around the world.
... Non Citizen Gibs
[24 Billion Per Year] The CCB has been supporting more than 3.3 million families with children, putting almost $2 billion each month, tax-free, into the bank accounts of families who need it most.
Who is eligible for Canada Child Benefit? You or your spouse or common-law partner must be:
a Canadian citizen
a permanent resident
a protected person
a temporary resident who has lived in Canada for the previous 18 months
“There's no better way to overpower a trickle of doubt than with a flood of naked truth” - A preview of the St Kilda Football Club’s 2016 season
St Kilda Football Club - 2016 Preview /StKilda | Official Website Fortius Quo Fidelius ("Strength through loyalty") Premierships (1): 1966 Grand Finals (7): 1913, 1965, 1966, 1971, 1997, 2009, 2010 Finalists (26): 1907, 1908, 1913, 1918, 1929, 1939, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1991, 1992, 1997, 1998, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Wooden Spoons (27): Get Fucked Club Summary “Every Tuesday I sit down with the CEO and the Football Manager to discuss the season's agenda. Well, discuss is probably the wrong word. They talk while I sit quietly and imagine their lightly salted faces frying in a skillet.” Captain: Nick Riewoldt Coach: Alan Richardson CEO: Matt Finnis President: Peter Summers Assistant Coaches: Danny Sexton (Director of Coaching & Strategy), Rohan Welsh (Defence), Adam Kingsley (Midfield), Aaron Hamill (Forwards), Adam Skrobalak (Ruck; part-time), Danny Frawley (Specialist Defence Coach; part-time). 2015 in Review 14th: 6 wins - 15 loses - 1 draw @ 78.4 Trevor Barker Medal:Jack Steven (2nd) Best Clubman Award:Jarryn Geary Best Emerging Player:Jack Lonie Player Trademark Award:Maverick Weller Leading Goal Kicker:Josh Bruce (50) 2015 Brought a host of experts predicting another dire year for the Saints, with some even predicting a winless season, and as BT would put it ‘Boy oh Boy’ they were wrong. Lead by the emergence of Josh Bruce, David Armitage and Jack Steven the Saints won 6 games, However more importantly were much more competitive against the best teams in the league. Unfortunately big losses to Carlton, West Coast and Sydney showed we have a lot of work to do Season Highlights Round 6 vs Western Bulldogs WB 13.9 (87) def by St Kilda 14.10 (94) Easily the craziest game of football I’ve ever seen, saw the Saints dominated by the Dogs for the whole first half. Until a 2nd half resurgence lead by 4 goals from Billings saw St Kilda come back from 55 points down to win. Round 11 vs Melbourne St Kilda 12.13 (85) d Melbourne 12.11(83) While not the best quality game of the season this game was particularly entertaining with an amazingly tight last quarter where neither team could score until the last minute when a late Jeremy Howe goal put Melbourne ahead, only for Steven and Montagna to perform an amazing game winning goal with 11 seconds left List Changes “There are two kinds of pain. The sort of pain that makes you strong. Or useless pain. The sort of pain that's only suffering. I have no patience for useless things. Moments like this require someone who will act. To do the unpleasant thing. The necessary thing... [puts the player out of his misery] There, no more pain.”
Jake Carlisle & Pick #14
Pick #5 & Pick #24
Nathan Freeman & Pick #68
2016 2nd round pick & Pick #63
2015 NATIONAL DRAFT
Albury Football Club
2016 Preview "For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain, there can be no mercy. There is but one rule: Hunt or be hunted." 2016 will mark another year of development for the St Kilda football club, Where we hope the young stars of the future will begin to take a greater control of the team from the veterans. We will likely see all three national draft selections make their debuts Our midfield will be lead again by the core group of Armitage, Steven, Dunstan and Weller with Billings, Lonie and Sinclair beginning to spend more time in the Middle Our Defence will be lead by Veterans Fisher and Dempster. Young Hugh Goddard should see a lot of action with Carlisle missing this year. Don’t be surprised to see Tom Lee thrown into the back line in 2016 Our Forward line will be led by Riewoldt Bruce. He is Love, he is Life. He will hopefully have support from, Billings, Ross, Lonie and Sinclair, with McCartin hopefully to have a solid second season. What we should expect to see is Riewoldt spending less time in the forward line and pushing up the ground more. Giving McCartin and Bruce more time to control the forward line Senior List “You may have all the money, Eddie, but I have all the accurate full forwards”
Players to Watch
Darren Minchington - Picked up in 2012 as a rookie, Darren has come a long way, at his best he can be a line breaking, damaging half forward. Unfortunately he has found himself somewhat down the pecking order, last year he was competing with; Billings, Sinclair, Lonie, Membrey & others for a spot in the team, with the inclusion of J. Gresham & N. Freeman this year looks to be no simpler.
Patrick McCartin - How will last years number one pick adapt to AFL football after his first season? With Riewoldt likely to be spending more time on the wing and in the middle, look to see McCartin get more time and freedom inside the forward 50. Nathan Freeman - The only top 10 pick from the 2013 draft who is yet to make his debut due to injuries. He looked to leave Collingwood for a fresh start. A Jet when healthy, he will be sure to add some much needed outside speed to the Saints midfield Jake Carlisle - The Saints big recruit for 2015 got off to a poor start with a poorly timed line of coke, Hopefully with a big preseason he can atone for his sins and join the team in time for his club debut in round 3 What's next? Snap chatting himself doing lines of coke off of a burning drawf highschooler? Players on notice “Nobody’s a Boy Scout. Not even Boy Scouts”
Tom Lee - Not sure he has the talent / body to make it, he'll need one helluva year to stay on IMO. Luke Delaney - Probably safe on the basis that Fisher will probably retire at the end of the year and we'd be screw'd if one of Goddard or Carlisle goes down.
Darren Minchinton - Can turn the game on his head when he’s playing well, but also can never seem to get some consistent form, He needs to play so consistant footy or he’ll find himself as trade bait
Nousernames-left “I'm not going to lie. I despise Snapchat. There. I've said it.”
Jake Carlisle - goes without saying. You fuck up, you fuck off.
meatpie_lover Best 22 “I love this team. I love them more than sharks love blood” FB: Dempster, Fisher, Geary HB: Savage, Goddard, Webster C:Montagna, Ross, Newnes HF Sinclair, Riewoldt, Membery FF Lonie, Bruce, McCartin Foll Longer, Steven, Armitage I/C Billings, Gilbert, Dunstan, Weller Expectations for 2016 "When you've been in the wasteland as long as I have, you become immune to flattery"
Winning all the winnable games. We should put away Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Essendon and probably Melbourne. Mixing it with the middle of the pack otherwise
Being competitive for the whole games, no blowouts and Improved accuracy when goal kicking
-Nousermanes-left Concerns for 2016 “Love of the club: most footballers are permanently chained to that slogan, club loyalty. But when you cozy up to opposition clubs and I find out, I will make that hypocrisy hurt.” Goal Kicking - Countless times last year the Saints kicked themselves out of games, this needs to change if we want to be serious in pushing for finals and winning close games. Midfielders - Too many times in 2014 when Steven or Armitage were taken out of the game via a tag, we struggled to get the ball forward and keep it there. we need to now if our current midfielders have the ability to hold their own against other strong midfields “Dodoro and I have a good working relationship. Or used to. You can see he has a temper, but I can usually cut through that and reason with him. But I may have pushed him too far, which is worrisome. Friends make the worst enemies.” Jake Carlisle - This trade can have a massive impact on the club. In particular how Jake Carlisle commits to this year off. There are two ways this could go, either he can enjoy the time off with a snapchat world tour in which he tests Coke from all around the world and he never plays a game for St Kilda. Or he works hard, keeps his nose clean literally and St Kilda get the defender we need while not paying him anywhere near as much as we first were. Josh Bruce's Haircuts The Normal The Debut The Glorious Man Bun 2016options Pass Mark "Melbourne is blocking my way. Gold Coast at my heels. There can be no false steps now. The higher up the mountain, the more treacherous the path"
12-14. We've recruited carefully, got another pre-season into our young stars and should expect the improvement to continue. Getting 10/11 by season's end would take a fair bit of luck, so 12 is a good target.
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